The “Future Self” is a Stranger Neurologically, when you think about your “Future Self” (e.g., You in 5 years), your brain lights up in the same area as when you think about a complete stranger. We don’t empathize with our future selves. This is why we procrastinate. Present Self: “I don’t want to do the dishes. I want to watch TV.” Future Self: “I will have to do the dishes tomorrow.” ...
The Asymmetry of Value Imagine I offer you a coin flip. Heads: You win $20. Tails: You lose $20. Would you take the bet? Most people say No. What if I change it? Heads: You win $40. Tails: You lose $20. Most people still hesitate. Mathematically, this is irrational. The “Expected Value” is positive. Psychologically, it makes perfect sense. The pain of losing $20 outweighs the joy of winning $40. We are hardwired to protect our resources. ...
The “Greedy Marketer” Trap As Product Managers, we are data-greedy. We want the user’s email. We want their phone number. We want them to create a profile so we can send them newsletters and retarget them with ads. We convince ourselves that “Registration” is good for the user. “It’s for their security!” we say. But to a user, a “Register” form represents Work and Commitment. Work: I have to think of a password. I have to verify my email. ...
The 4-Step Loop Why do some products flop while others become obsessions? It’s not just “value.” It’s the delivery mechanism. The Hook Model explains the cycle that turns a conscious choice into an automatic behavior.1 1. The Trigger (The Cue) Every habit starts with a spark. External Triggers: Emails, push notifications, icons with red badges.2 These are training wheels. Internal Triggers: This is the goal. You want the user’s emotions to trigger the app. ...
The Missing Data The story of Abraham Wald and the WW2 bombers is the perfect metaphor for modern Product Management. The Generals made a logical error: They assumed the data they had was the entire data. They forgot about the data they didn’t have: The planes lying at the bottom of the ocean. In SaaS, your “Ocean” is your Churn Rate. The “Power User” Trap We love our Power Users. They answer our surveys. They join our beta programs. They rave about us on Twitter. So, we build features for them. ...
The Famous Threat In 2009, Costco’s then-CEO came to the founder, Jim Sinegal, and said, “Jim, we can’t sell this hot dog for $1.50 anymore. We are losing our shirts.” Sinegal replied with the now-famous line: “If you raise the effing hot dog, I will kill you. Figure it out.” So, they built their own hot dog factories just to keep the price down. They refused to break the $1.50 price point. ...
The Rational Shopper Myth We like to believe we are rational. We think we judge a product’s value based on its intrinsic worth. But behavioral economics tells us a different story: Humans are terrible at evaluating absolute value. We are only good at evaluating relative value. We don’t know if a subscription is “worth” $50. We only know if it’s “better value” than the $40 option next to it. The Experiment This phenomenon was famously demonstrated by Dan Ariely (author of Predictably Irrational) using an Economist magazine subscription offer. ...
The Supermarket Layout It is a universal truth of retail: The essentials (Milk, Bread, Eggs) are never near the door. They are located in the farthest, deepest corner of the store. This is known as the “Perimeter Strategy.” Retailers know that 90% of customers have “Milk” on their mental checklist. It is a high-intent, low-negotiation item. You aren’t going to leave the store without it. So, they use the Milk as an Anchor. ...
The Universal Frustration It’s 9 AM. You are late for a meeting. You whip out your phone to book a cab. The map shows plenty of cars around you. The text says, “Pickup in 2 minutes.” Relieved, you hit “Confirm Booking.” Swish. The screen refreshes. Your driver has been assigned. And suddenly, that “2 minutes” has turned into “Arrival in 8 minutes.” You stare at the screen, annoyed. You feel tricked. You wonder if their algorithm is broken. ...